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Hot pitchers mean hot betting system in K.C. 2010-06-30 In yesterday’s feature baseball game, we spotted a run line system that we coined a “sure-fire” winner, and Cliff Lee and the Mariners delivered with a 7-4 win in New York. For tonight, there’s another very strong run line system AND trend that figure to impact the game between the White Sox and Royals from Kansas City. The teams’ aces will collide as Jake Peavy matches up with Zack Greinke, with the latter installed as a -115 money line favorite according to Sportsbook.com, with a run line of -1.5, +170. Chicago right-hander Jake Peavy is starting to show the stuff that earned him a Cy Young Award. So is Kansas City's Zack Greinke. Peavy will look to extend his 21-inning scoreless stretch Wednesday when the visiting White Sox try to snap Greinke's recent stretch of solid outings. The 2007 NL Cy Young winner while with San Diego, Peavy got off to a poor start in his first full season with the White Sox, going 4-5 with a 5.90 ERA in 12 starts. Peavy (7-5, 4.71 ERA), though, thrived against NL opponents in his last three starts, winning each outing while posting a 0.78 ERA. He struck out a season high-tying nine and gave up three hits in Friday's 6-0 victory over the Chicago Cubs. The right-hander is now two innings of shy of matching his career-best scoreless stretch. Peavy, 4-1 with a 3.77 lifetime ERA versus the Royals, will look to win his fifth straight start against Kansas City (33-45). Greinke (3-8, 3.72) is 5-10 with a 4.46 ERA in 19 starts against Chicago. He'll make his first start versus Chicago this season after going 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA in five starts against them during his 2009 Cy Young season. Greinke was far from last season's form in his first 13 starts - going 1-8 with a 4.05 ERA. The right-hander, however, is 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA in his last three outings, striking out 23 while walking just two during that stretch. The fact that both pitchers have been at their best of late leads to a highly profitable run line system from FoxSheets, backing Greinke and the Royals: Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (KANSAS CITY) - with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 3 starts against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. (31-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.8%, +21.5 units. Rating = 3*) The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (30-12 over the last 5 seasons.) The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.6, money line price: +105 The average score in these games was: Team 4.5, Opponent 3.6 (Average run differential = +0.8) The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 23 (54.8% of all games.) The situation's record this season is: (2-1, +0.5 units). Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-7, +9.6 units). Since 1997 the situation's record is: (59-52, +2.2 units). If that weren’t enough, there is also a noteworthy trend to consider based upon Kansas City’s recent bullpen success. • KANSAS CITY is 10-0 against the run line (+12.3 Units) in home games with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was KANSAS CITY 5.7, OPPONENT 2.6 - (Rating = 4*) Visit the GAME MATCHUP page on Sportsbook.com for more key betting info on this contest. MLB Series Betting- L.A. Dodgers at San Diego 2010-05-15 The San Diego Padres (+12.3 units) have the best record in the National League at 22-12 and also have the fattest lead of any division leader at 3.5 games after sweeping San Francisco this week. The Dodgers have also been playing well of late though, winners of their last four games. That backdrop makes the teams’ meeting in Los Angeles this weekend’s feature series. Let’s take a look at it. Sportsbook.com has San Diego installed as a -130 favorite to take the 3-game set. Last season a messy divorce between owner John Moores and his wife Becky left the Padres in limbo and the organization was cut to barest of minimums, except for the face of the franchise Adrian Gonzalez. Last year’s rag-a-muffin bunch won 75 games somehow, however most baseball experts considered that a fluke and oddsmakers put a cap of 71 wins on San Diego for 2010 with its new ownership that lacks deep pockets. What has caused the Pads to be so good this season, tremendous pitching. San Diego leads the NL in ERA at 2.61, as they concede the lowest batting average at .221 and lowest on-base percentage at .291. Those numbers improve at spacious PETCO Park, where the Padres allow a mere 2.4 runs per game, which leads to 11-5 record. Offensively, San Diego was last in most major categories a season ago and while this group doesn’t remind many of Cincinnati’s “Big Red Machine” of 1970’s, they are at least adequate at 4.3 RPG. In the series opener, former Dodger John Garland (4-2, 1.71 ERA) will start for the Padres. “Garland has done a heck of a job,” Los Angeles manager Joe Torre told the Dodgers’ official website. “He’s a good guy to settle down a young staff. He’s simple: ‘Just give me the ball.’” With the L.A. offense scoring 5.3 RPG, San Diego is 9-1 vs. NL teams scoring 5.3 or more runs game on the year and is a -140 money line favorite at Sportsbook.com with total Ov7.5. Garland last pitched on Saturday and is 11-1 UNDER when working on five or six days rest over the last two seasons. (Team's Record) The Dodgers will give the ball to Ramon Ortiz (1-1, 5.16) who is making his first start since May, 26, 2007 after 14 relief appearances this season having spent 2008 in Japan and 2009 in Triple-A. “It’s been a long time, almost two years,” Ortiz said. “I’m a very positive guy. I knew I could do this, being back in the big leagues.” Game 1 Edge: San Diego While much of the state of California wants to boycott Arizona, don’t count the Dodgers (-5.7) among them, after sweeping the Diamondbacks into downtown Phoenix, giving them four straight wins and six of seven to square up their record at 17-17. Los Angeles ownership is going thru the same thing San Diego did as Frank and Jamie McCourt are involved in bitter divorce proceedings which includes who actually owns the team. Though the Dodgers are second in the league in runs scored, they have a team ERA of 4.68, which is 12th in the senior circuit, very un-Dodger like. Because of the divorce, GM Ned Colletti is unable to make any moves that might improve their pitching and is scrambling for five reliable starters and an inconsistent bullpen. One of the more dependable starters has been Clayton Kershaw (2-2, 3.96) who once again followed up with brilliance off a stinker. He threw just 1 1/3 innings against Milwaukee in allowing seven runs and followed that up with eight shutout innings on two hits and nine strikeouts against Colorado his last time out. The Dodgers are 8-2 when the young lefty pitches the second game of a series and are 27-11 on Saturday’s. Kevin Correia (4-2, 3.97) takes the ball for the Friars, who have averaged 9.2 runs in his six starts. Correia in fact is 20-0 when his team totals four or more runs in his career. San Diego is 5-0 when he the middle game starting pitcher and they are perfect 7-0 against left-handed opposing hurlers since Apr. 20. Correia will pitch with heavy heart, since his brother was tragically killed in hiking accident last week. Game 2 Edge: Los Angeles At press time, Wade LeBlanc (2-0, 1.61) is not officially listed as the starting pitcher for the Padres, though it is his turn in the rotation. The easy tossing port-sider finished last season outstanding and has continued into this year. LeBlanc’s fastball seldom hits 90 MPH, but his late-breaking curveball and devastating change-up causes a large number of ugly swings. This will be the only day game in the series and if he starts as presumed, LeBlanc has 0.82 ERA in two daytime contests. With L.A.’s lack of maneuverability, the one pitcher Torre needed was Chad Billingsley (3-2, 4.82) who has not had command most of the season. Off last year’s second half fade, Torre has a quick hook for Billingsley, who has yet to pitch past six innings this season for a club that needs extended outings to protect what has been mediocre bullpen work. The right-hander is 8-4 with a 2.71 ERA in his career against the Padres, 3-2 with a 2.77 ERA at PETCO Park. Game 3 Edge: San Diego This I-5 series will be surrounded by ample excitement with Saturday’s conflict a sell-out and the other two contests either will be or very close to. This will be a good test for both clubs still early in the 2010 campaign as a gauge to where they are in the division. As long as San Diego doesn’t get too excited, their superior pitching should be enough to capture the series. Sportsbook.com series odds: Los Angeles Even, San Diego -130 StatFox Edge Pick: San Diego Slump-busters needed for Phillies and Braves 2009-09-08 An old baseball mythical term which has been around for decades finds a couple of National League teams in need of its magic. The Philadelphia Phillies were just swept at Houston and Atlanta has lost five in a row. As opposed to other teams with losing streaks at present, both these teams are changing opponents, which might be enough to end this dismal spell. However, in other instances, “slump-busters” might include changing batting order, burning bats, wearing hats differently in the dugout or a few other more crude elements that can’t be mentioned here. Can both teams get it going Tuesday on the road? Be sure to visit the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages to help find that answer. Philadelphia at Washington The Phillies (77-58, +3.3 units) suffered a lost holiday weekend in Houston in being swept by the Astros in a four game series for the first time in a decade. Philadelphia bats have taken a leave of absence, as Philly as scored almost 1.9 runs per game in last nine tries and hasn’t scored more than four runs in a single game since August 24, covering 13 ballgames. Only twice in their last 13 tries have they managed to get to double digit hits. The Phillies will open up three games series in Washington (47-90, -32.4 units) and the Nationals have often been the perfect elixir for what ails any team. Washington would have a nine game losing streak except for scoring three runs in the bottom of the ninth to come from behind and surprise Florida 5-4 on Sunday. The Nationals are 15-42 having lost two of their last three games and are woebegone 2-14 with a day off this season. Philadelphia will face John Lannon (8-10, 4.09 ERA) who is 0-5 with a 5.89 ERA in seven career starts against the Phillies. Ryan Howard and struggling teammates are 27-15 versus left-handed pitchers, scoring 5.3 runs per game in 2009. Sportsbook.com has the Phils as -140 money line favorites behind Pedro Martinez (3-0, 3.52), with a total at Un9. Lannon and the Nats are 12-29 in night games, while the Phillies are 12-4 with an on-base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games this season. Atlanta at Houston The Braves (70-67, -12.9 units) have played themselves out of wild card contention by losing five straight, the last three at home to Cincinnati scoring four runs against a Reds pitching staff ranked middle of the road at eighth in the National League in runs allowed. Atlanta travels to take on a hot Houston (67-70, +2.4 units) club, who just wiped out Philadelphia four in a row. Atlanta has touched home plate 14 times in last five contests (2.8 RPG), while hitting well below the Mendoza-line as a team with a .185 batting average. We picked a real bad time to all not hit,” Chipper Jones told the Braves official Web site. “It just doesn’t seem like anybody is swinging the bat real well.” Jones is a big part of the offensive misdeeds, batting .121 in his last 20 games. A change of venue could ignite Atlanta who lost 4-2 Sunday and they are 12-5 in road games after a loss by two runs or less this season. They will turn to Javier Vazquez (11-9, 3.18) who is 22-7 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last two seasons. (Team's Record) The Braves are -140 money line favorites with total at Un8.5. Houston will try to extend their winning streak to five coming off of three consecutive one-run wins over Philadelphia. Felipe Paulino (2-7, 6.62) will be given the pill, attempting to hold the slumping Braves bats in check and Houston is 20-9 at Minute Maid Park in the second half of the season. StatFox Power Line – Philadelphia -103, Atlanta -187 MLB: Betting Baseball Theories Changing 2009-05-06 It's not considered politically correct to admit you enjoyed Major League baseball during what has become known as the steroid era. After people lost faith in baseball because of the 1994 strike that caused the deletion of the World Series, baseball needed a change to bring people back to the park. As players started paying attention to nutrition and health supplements, the seamy side also crept in and untold numbers of players started using steroids and other performance enhancements and the ball was flying out of the ball yard as never before. Baseball assuredly heard the whispers about players "adding 20 pounds of muscle" but choose to ignore with the turnstiles twirling, as fans enjoyed all the home runs being launched across 30 ball parks. ESPN SportsCenter had a massive inventory of highlights for several shows each night and the game's popularity grew. Though many of its presumed users have not and likely will never come forward, I always had more of a problem with Brady Anderson hitting 50 home runs and never before or after even reaching 25. Or Luis Gonzalez hitting 57 in 2001, with 31 homers the high water mark previously and going forward for. I'm not accusing either player of doing something they have denied doing, just trying to make sense of their accomplishments, as literally one-hit wonders. While that space of time is looked upon shamefully because a bunch of oversized non-athletic (in many cases) players were "softball bangers" with limited skills, this helped usher in a new era, taking the game back to its roots with a new modern twist that can help the sports bettor. Tampa Bay turned over its organization three years ago, finally realizing they had to have different concept to compete with Boston and the Yankees. The Rays started drafting players not only with skills, but exceptional athletes, who could run and play a different style of baseball. I've mentioned before in articles about how Peter Gammons believed in spring training of 2008, after watching Tampa Bay, he felt the Rays would be at least a .500 or better last season, since they were in his opinion the most athletic team in baseball. The Rays easily exceeded Gammon's beliefs, winning 97 games, after never winning more than 70 in any previous season. The two most obvious aspects of improvement were the young talented everyday players and starting pitchers. Scott Kazmir was already established as the best pitcher in baseball on bad team and James Shields and Matt Garza came into their own. By late August of 2008, every true baseball fan knew the names of B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena. Despite all the fanfare, one aspect was overlooked after Tampa Bay won first ever division title. The Rays actually scored EIGHT less runs in winning 97 games than they did in winning 66 contests in 2007. So what happened, the starting pitching and bullpen was dramatically improved as Tampa gave up 273 FEWER runs. One overlooked point is what a difference defense made. Where this comes into play is sites like Hardball Times, who have devised methods to rate players on defense skills, beyond errors. They have metrics like Ultimate Zone Ratings, which measure a player's ability to save or cost his team runs during the course of a season. There are so many intriguing variables to learn from, that would be two more articles, but for the sake of simple clarity, we'll stick to the basics. Tampa Bay developed a model of defensive statistics that was devised to replicate how offensive numbers worked. This led to drafting certain types of players that could reach batted balls at a higher rate then average players. The results of this new way of thinking helped produce last year's American League champions. John Dewan, who was an early Bill James follower, started Baseball Info Solutions and created +/- method of interpreting fielding. In Sports Illustrated's Baseball Preview, he talked about the importance of fielding. "Last year, based on my metrics, the Phillies defense saved about 80 runs as team," Dewan stated. "The worst team, the Royals, lost about 50 runs." If you consider this the norm and think of Texas and San Diego having the widest variance in runs scored from last year with a 264 runs scored differential, this suggests defense is approximately half as important as scoring runs. If you find this argument hard to swallow, think about a few of the season results to date. Seattle is a surprise leader in the AL West, after losing 101 games last season. The Mariners added Franklin Gutierrez, who was Fielding Bible winner last season and Endy Chavez to patrol expansive Safeco Field outfield. In defensive efficiency ratings, the Mariners have jumped from 24th to eighth. If your prefer simpler stats, the top three teams in total chances are in order, Toronto, St. Louis and the Dodgers, who are a combined 54-27, +23.8 units at this time. Putouts are a related function to total chances and the four best teams at present are Toronto, Florida, Seattle and the Dodgers, all four division leaders. The L.A. Angels have been hamstrung with pitching woes, but they have not been helped by miserable defense, which has fallen from 14th to 29th this season. The game of baseball has gone back to having a lineup that has boppers and strong hitters, balanced with players who can throw around the leather. Smart baseball teams are seeing the value of fielding and smart baseball bettors are too. BASEBALL 7/23-6/26 2008-07-09 The American League has a pair of series to start the week that will impact the various races even at this juncture. Boston travels to Cleveland for the only time in 2007 in the regular season playing four very important encounters. The Red Sox starting pitchers are among the best in the major leagues and they will need them against one of the best line-ups in the American League in Cleveland. Boston has shown a distinct flavor towards playing Under on the road with 29-15-1 record. The Indians on the other hand have been on the warpath at Jacobs Field winning better than 70 percent of all home games. Something to keep an eye is pitching match-ups to see what team is favored. Cleveland wins about 65 percent of the time when favored this season and Boston is just 7-13 as an underdog. The Red Sox are 6-4 at the Tribe’s home park. Oakland and the Los Angeles Angels renew there intense rivalry that does not receive some of the publicity more familiar one’s like the Red Sox and Yankees do. In the last 40 games between these teams, 27 of them have been decided by two or less runs. Oakland is 11-11 over the last three years at the Big A in Anaheim and these two West division clubs have played Under the Total a whopping 18 of 22 times at L.A. For the second straight season, the Colorado Rockies are on the fringe of contention in the NL West in July and can create real noise this week playing two of the teams above them in the standings at Coors Field. San Diego pays a visit to the Mile High City where Colorado is 26-19 this season. The Rockies offense has been steadily improving as the season has worn on and is scoring 5.3 runs per game at home. The Padres offense does not score many runs; however terrific starting pitching and a great bullpen compensates for lack of hitting. San Diego is 25-20 on the road and 11-11 at Colorado the last three years. The Padres are 4-2 this season thus far against the Rockies. Don’t miss a great opportunity to increase your winnings with the various options of baseball wagering here at Sportsbook.com |